Veteran investor Chris Camillo said SpaceX is a "highly speculative game" and that investors are pricing in future successes at roughly a $1.6 trillion valuation.
Camillo's view rests on the company's public-market scale and heavy spending: SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 a share and raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation, it reported $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue alongside a multibillion-dollar loss, saw second-quarter revenue jumped 92% as Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million, and disclosed that capital expenditure topped $18 billion including $15.83 billion for AI infrastructure.
"For me, that's a highly speculative game based on something that might or never materialize," Camillo said.
The market picture is split: some bulls are increasing exposure, with veteran Ron Baron increasing his exposure to SpaceX and VC David Friedberg calling Starlink an "unbelievable juggernaut cash machine" that could exceed $1 trillion in annual revenue, analysts flag Microsoft as well placed if SpaceX scales compute Microsoft could be perfectly positioned, shares have only briefly moved above its IPO price for the first time in almost a month and even returned to its offering price of $135, while operational risks including Musk's refusal of a Ukrainian request to enable deep strikes have highlighted control questionsrefused Ukrainian request to enable Starlink for deep strikes; the company says it expects a $100 billion revenue run rate by December.
