The case for owning SpaceX rests on a simple bet that it stops being three companies and becomes one platform. Wedbush has become the first major house to put its name to that thesis, initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 price target. The call arrives after a fortnight of trading that has tested the nerve of everyone who bought in.
Analyst Dan Ives frames SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets in technology, a vertically integrated operator spanning connectivity, launch and AI infrastructure. The argument is that these three businesses feed each other. Cheaper launches put more Starlink satellites in orbit, a larger Starlink base funds the launch cadence, and both underwrite the move into orbital compute.
A price target below where the stock has already been
The timing is the story. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 on June 11, opened at $150 the next day and closed its first session near $161. Retail buyers then drove it to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, briefly making it the fourth-most-valuable public company and turning Elon Musk into the world's first trillionaire.
The comedown was just as fast. A 16.4% slump on June 22 wiped out most of the gains, and the stock touched $147.11 the following day amid a broader tech sell-off. It has since recovered to around $171. Wedbush's $190 target sits above that level but well below the June peak, a reminder of how far sentiment overshot the fundamentals.
Starlink carries the numbers
The profit engine is connectivity, not rockets. Starlink counts roughly 12 million subscribers as of early June, with average revenue per user near $66 across consumer and enterprise fleets. Wedbush argues the service holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving room to grow, with direct-to-device cellular services adding a second front.
That last point has fresh backing. Bloomberg reported this week that SpaceX and Charter Communications are discussing a mobile phone partnership, the kind of deal flow the connectivity thesis depends on.
The valuation leans on 2028
The $190 target comes from a sum-of-the-parts model built on 2028 estimates, implying roughly $2.48 trillion of enterprise value. Starlink supplies the bulk through recurring revenue and its next-generation satellite capacity, while AI and compute add growth as contracted run-rate builds.
Ives is careful about what he excludes. Sub-$200-per-kilogram launch economics, orbital data centres and enterprise AI monetisation could all drive upside, but each faces steep hurdles, so none feeds the base case. That restraint matters for a stock priced on ambition. With a lock-up unwind due after August earnings, the gap between the promise and the proof is about to be tested.
