Bitwise Europe's André Dragosch has put Bitcoin's "fair value" at $197,000, pointing to global liquidity trends, a weaker dollar and growing institutional adoption as drivers of a potential rally, according to Benzinga.
Dragosch's calculation rests on Bitcoin's divergence from global money supply, which he says has reached its largest recorded gap, a relationship he argues has historically been a strong long-term price driver.
He also frames turmoil in richly valued artificial intelligence stocks as a possible rotation trigger, with capital fleeing an AI correction potentially flowing into Bitcoin, and a wider equity or bond shock raising pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy.
The thesis leans heavily on monetary conditions still missing: Bitwise's view holds that expanding liquidity and central-bank easing are needed before any durable rally, while dollar weakness has historically coincided with Bitcoin's strongest performance.
Institutional demand has been volatile over the past year.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw more than $7 billion of net outflows in November 2025, followed by roughly $2 billion in December and over $3 billion in January, before flows swung from about $4.7 billion of outflows in the second quarter to $6.4 billion of inflows in the third.
Bitwise's own institutional survey found every interviewed institution holding crypto also held Bitcoin, typically as its first, largest and longest-held position, and the firm projects potential Bitcoin returns of 30% to 40% annually over the next decade.
The $197,000 figure remains a model-based estimate rather than a near-term forecast, given how sharply ETF flows have already reversed once this cycle.
