SpaceX is expected to go public around June 12 under the ticker SPCX in what will be the largest IPO in stock market history. That sentence alone should be enough to stop you scrolling.
But the listing itself is not the most interesting thing in Wedbush's latest research note. The most interesting thing is buried further down: the broker puts the probability of a SpaceX-Tesla merger in 2027 at more than 80%.
Let that land for a moment. The world's most valuable rocket company and the world's most valuable car company, both controlled by the same person, becoming one entity.
The numbers are staggering
SpaceX has laid out a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion. That breaks down to $370bn in space-enabled solutions, $1.6 trillion in connectivity through Starlink, and $26.5 trillion in AI across infrastructure, consumer subscriptions, advertising and enterprise applications.
The AI capex alone was $12.7bn in the last financial year, with $7.7bn spent in Q1 2026. The company plans to launch solar-powered AI compute satellites by 2028, which is SpaceX's answer to the energy bottleneck that is constraining every terrestrial data centre operator.
Meanwhile, the Grok and xAI business, which SpaceX absorbed earlier this year, generated $3.2bn in revenue across 550 million monthly active users and 350 million posts on X feeding real-time data to the frontier model.
After the IPO, Musk will hold the titles of CEO, CTO and chairman, with majority voting control. There will be no ambiguity about who runs this company.
The merger logic is less crazy than it sounds
Tesla already owns a stake in SpaceX after its $2bn investment in xAI was converted to SpaceX shares following the xAI acquisition. A joint Terafab facility has been announced, tying manufacturing operations across both companies. The overlap is being built deliberately.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives argues that Musk wants to own and control more of the AI ecosystem, and that combining SpaceX's space-based compute and connectivity infrastructure with Tesla's robotics, energy storage and autonomous driving platform creates something no other company can replicate.
The counter-argument is governance. A merged entity would concentrate an extraordinary amount of economic and technological power under one person with majority voting control and no meaningful board oversight. Regulators in multiple jurisdictions would have views on that.
The IPO wave matters too
Wedbush makes a broader point that is easy to miss. The SpaceX listing is expected to be followed by IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI in the coming months. The broker argues this wave will not drain liquidity from the current AI-driven tech rally, pushing back against bears who say the market cannot absorb this much new paper.
That is a bold call. Three of the most hyped companies in technology going public in rapid succession will test retail and institutional appetite in ways the market has not seen since 2021.
The real question
SpaceX as a public company is significant. SpaceX merged with Tesla under permanent Musk control is something else entirely. It would create the first vertically integrated earth-to-orbit AI and energy conglomerate, run by a single individual with no external check on his authority.
Whether that excites or terrifies you probably depends on how you feel about the man at the centre of it. The market, for now, is firmly in the excited camp.
