SpaceX priced its IPO on June 11 and began trading on June 12 under the ticker SPCX. The stock closed its first session at $160.95, up 19% from the offering price, delivering the kind of opening-day premium that IPO allocations are designed to capture.
If you were allocated shares, you are in profit. The decision now is straightforward: sell, hold or trade
Case for selling
A 19% return in a single day is exceptional by any measure. Tom Sosnoff, the veteran market maker who built thinkorswim and tastytrade, said before the listing that he planned to buy at the IPO price and potentially sell immediately. The first-day pop is exactly what he was describing.
Selling now locks in the profit with zero ongoing risk. You avoid the volatility that typically follows an IPO's opening session, the lock-up expiry dynamics and the uncertainty around a company projecting $350bn in cumulative cash burn through 2030.
If your allocation was small, the 19% gain is the trade. Take it.
Case for holding
Nasdaq has fast-tracked SpaceX for potential inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index. If it is added, every passive fund and ETF tracking the index will be forced to buy shares regardless of valuation. That creates structural demand that could support or lift the price over the coming weeks.
The index inclusion window is the strongest near-term catalyst for holders. If you believe SpaceX will be added, holding through that process captures buying pressure that has nothing to do with the company's fundamentals and everything to do with the mechanics of passive investing.
The risk is that SpaceX is not added, or that broader market conditions deteriorate before inclusion occurs. A 19% gain in hand is worth more than a speculative gain that depends on an index committee decision.
Concentration risk
SpaceX is projecting $474bn in revenue by 2030, with roughly 80% of capex allocated to AI infrastructure. The company may need to raise additional capital after the IPO. The S&P 500 has declined to fast-track inclusion, which removes one source of passive demand.
The stock traded well on day one. Whether it trades well on day 30 or day 90 depends on earnings delivery, the AI infrastructure buildout and whether the market maintains its appetite for a company that burns cash at historic rates.
Practical answer
If your allocation was modest, selling at $160.95 captures a clean 19% return on a trade that lasted one day. That is the kind of outcome most investors never see.
If your allocation was larger and you want to hold, set a price at which you will sell and honour it. The first-day pop creates an anchor. If the stock runs further on index inclusion, take profits incrementally. If it fades, you already know where your exit is.
Sosnoff's philosophy applies: this is a stock to trade, not to marry. The 19% is real. Everything after it is a bet on a company that has not yet proven it can deliver what its prospectus promises.
