Waymo has unveiled its new custom-built robotaxi, and it looks exactly like what it is: a purpose-built minivan with no steering wheel and a colour scheme that says "I am friendly, please do not regulate me."
The vehicle, spotted in testing by TechCrunch's Kirsten Korosec in Phoenix, replaces the Jaguar I-PACE that has served as Waymo's workhorse. It has a flat floor, enormous headroom, gondola-style doors and the general aesthetic of a particularly cheerful airport shuttle.
None of that matters. What matters is the cost.
The economics have to work eventually
Waymo has burned through years of Alphabet's patience and capital without turning a profit. The custom platform is supposed to change that by giving the company more control over hardware integration and reducing the per-vehicle cost of the sensor stack.
How much cheaper it is than the Jaguar remains unclear. Waymo is not saying, which usually means the savings are real but not yet dramatic enough to brag about.
The rollout plan is cautious. Select riders in Phoenix, Los Angeles and San Francisco will get access first, with Denver coming online next. When the fleet scales to tens of thousands, the Jaguars retire.
The problems have not retired
Waymo is simultaneously standing down service in several cities due to flooding issues. Recalls and edge cases continue to surface. The technology works impressively well most of the time, which is not the same as working well enough all of the time.
The company may need another funding round before any IPO, which means Alphabet's patience is not just a virtue but a financial requirement.
A minivan is the honest answer
There is something refreshing about the design. Tesla promised a sleek, futuristic robotaxi and delivered a concept car that looked like it was designed to win awards rather than carry passengers. Waymo looked at the problem and built a box with doors.
The minivan is the correct form factor for a vehicle that needs to be accessible, spacious and cheap to manufacture at scale. It is not glamorous. It does not need to be.
The question is whether Waymo can get enough of them on the road, at a low enough cost, before Alphabet's willingness to fund the project runs out. The minivan is the right vehicle. The runway is the problem.
