Elon Musk told investors on Tesla's July 2025 earnings call that autonomous ride-hailing would reach "about half the population of the US by the end of the year." Twelve months later, Tesla's robotaxi fleet consists of 59 vehicles across three Texas cities.
In Austin, the flagship market, roughly 20 unsupervised vehicles cover 245 square miles. That is fewer than 25 cars for a metro area of more than two million people.
Bloomberg reported long waits and stalled rides. Reuters documented the problem in detail.
Data doesn't lie
A Reuters reporter tracked Tesla robotaxi availability in Austin eight times a day for three weeks in April. Wait times exceeded 15 minutes about half the time. They reached 25 minutes or more on more than a quarter of checks. In 27% of attempts, no cars were available at all.
One vehicle failed to start when it arrived, requiring customer support intervention. Drop-offs frequently left riders walking considerable distances from their actual destinations. A reporter in Houston managed one ride before the app cancelled a second booking and offered no vehicles for 30 minutes. She ordered an Uber.
Waymo operates more than 250 vehicles in Austin and roughly 3,000 across its US markets.
Hand-picked problem
Tesla initially invited a curated group of riders who provided enthusiastic early reviews. Those impressions drove the narrative that the service was working. Bloomberg's reporting shows they did not translate into reliable operations at even modest scale.
The gap between controlled demonstration and public service is where every robotaxi company faces its hardest test. Tesla launched publicly with vehicles that were followed by chase cars monitoring remotely. Some vehicles still carry human safety monitors despite the company saying for months that it had phased them out.
Timeline collapse
Musk said half the US population would have access by the end of 2025. In June 2026, the service operates in Austin, Dallas and Houston with a combined fleet smaller than a mid-sized taxi company. Tesla has tied any major fleet expansion to Full Self-Driving version 15, which it targets for late 2026 or early 2027.
The Cybercab, Tesla's purpose-built robotaxi, has no confirmed production timeline. The Fremont factory line conversion from Model S and Model X to robotaxi production is underway but output dates remain unspecified.
Valuation gap
Tesla trades at 364 times forward earnings. A significant portion of that multiple reflects the market's belief in the robotaxi business becoming a major revenue driver. Polymarket traders put the probability of Optimus reaching the public by year end at 14%. The robotaxi timeline has proven even less reliable than the robot timeline.
Fifty-nine vehicles. Three cities. Wait times longer than the rides. This is not a service. It is a proof of concept priced as though it were already an industry.
