Nvidia's board is weighing the future of a chief executive who, on one analyst's numbers, is worth about $2.1 trillion to the company.
Dan Ives, the technology analyst at Yorkville Ives, reckons Nvidia is a $300 stock with Jensen Huang in charge and a $225 stock without him.
That puts Huang's value at about $75 a share.
With roughly 27.7 billion Nvidia shares in issue, that works out at about $2.08 trillion, or around 43% of the chipmaker's current $4.81 trillion market value.
Few chief executives have ever had such a large price tag attached to their own job.
The investigation
The board launched an independent inquiry on 8 November into whether Huang had been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation.
It follows reports that US officials believe Alice Huang, an executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed, had been recruited to gather information for Beijing.
Huang has admitted to Nvidia staff that he had an intimate relationship with her. The two are not related.
Ives expects the board's inquiry, along with US government investigations, to take four to six weeks.
He puts the chance of Huang being removed at about 15%, and thinks he will most likely stay on.
Pricing in the worst
The market appears less sure.
Nvidia shares are trading at $173.52, well below the $225 Ives believes they would be worth without Huang at the helm.
On that logic, investors are pricing in not only Huang's departure but a good deal more besides.
Some of that reflects fears about what Washington does next.
Baird this week cut Nvidia to neutral and slashed its price target to $200 from $500.
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It expects a new ban on exports of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, which could force a write-off of about $5 billion.
Morgan Stanley has also dropped Nvidia as its top pick in the sector.
Why Huang matters
Huang co-founded Nvidia in 1993 and turned it from a maker of graphics cards for video games into the company whose chips power the AI boom.
Even Nvidia's critics see him as central to its value.
The only prominent Wall Street bear on the stock has warned that forcing him out "would be a mistake for everyone".
Ives said the affair would continue to cast a shadow over the entire technology sector, given Huang's importance to the AI industry worldwide.
Nvidia reports its third-quarter results on 17 November.
