Traders on Polymarket, the prediction market, give Google a 48% chance of releasing its Gemini 4 "Carbon" model to the public by 15 November, and 72% by the end of that month.
The odds of a release by 31 October are just 10%, while the odds for 31 December stand at 76%.
The market opened on 26 October and has attracted only about $18,400 in trading so far, so the prices are a thin guide.
It resolves to "yes" if Google releases Carbon, or a model confirmed to be the same one, to the general public by the stated date.
Carbon is the codename for a newer version of Gemini 4, Google's flagship AI model family.
Business Insider reported on 9 October that Google staff were testing it on Jetski, the company's internal coding platform.
One employee told the outlet it "feels like Opus 5.5" for coding, a reference to Anthropic's most capable model, but added that further testing was needed.
Argon first
Carbon follows Gemini 4 Argon, which Google announced on 30 September.
Argon became available globally on 13 October through the Gemini API, AI Studio, the Gemini app and AI Mode in Search for eligible subscribers.
It reached Antigravity, Google's coding tool, for paying AI Pro subscribers on 15 October.
No confirmation yet
Google has not confirmed Carbon or given a release date.
Business Insider said it could not verify whether the model would launch under the same name.
Testing Catalog, a site that tracks AI releases, reported this month that Carbon appears to be reaching people outside Google.
Users on a Google Antigravity forum on Reddit say a wider rollout could come as early as November, though that is speculation and the post cites no source.
Read more about Chipmakers
