Memory chip prices are still heading higher this quarter, but the final numbers may land below the headline forecasts.
TrendForce, the Taiwanese market research firm, expects DRAM contract prices to rise 10% to 15% and NAND prices 15% to 20%.
DRAM is the working memory used in computers and servers, while NAND is the flash memory used for storage.
Prices not yet settled
Contract prices will not be fixed until later this month, and two developments could shift them.
Hyperscalers, the cloud giants building AI data centres, have raised their forecasts for NAND supply.
At the same time, consumer demand for phones and laptops has fallen.
Either change could take some of the heat out of the final contracts.
A couple of weeks ago, suppliers and customers were pointing to DRAM rises in the high teens and NAND up 10% or more, according to Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson.
His conversations with the industry broadly matched TrendForce's view, but he flagged the softer demand and supply signals as risks to the final numbers.
The HBM puzzle
TrendForce also expects prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the stacked memory used in AI chips, to rise sharply this quarter.
Blending that into the overall DRAM figure implies a rise of 15% to 20%.
That does not quite fit what Micron Technology said on Wednesday night.
The US memory maker suggested it expects the bigger jump in HBM prices to come in 2027, when annual contracts are reset.
TrendForce may be assuming a rapid shift this quarter towards HBM4, the latest generation, which commands higher prices.
Bryson said that without the details of TrendForce's calculation, Wedbush could not be sure what the forecast means.
Still a seller's market
None of this changes the bigger picture.
Memory makers are selling everything they can produce, and Micron's results this week showed revenue almost five times higher than a year ago.
The question is how steep the next leg of price rises will be, not whether it comes at all.
If consumer demand keeps weakening, memory makers will lean even harder on AI customers to carry the market.
